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What will happen if the US Navy blocked off the shipping routes to China and placed an oil embargo against China, like India did against Nepal in 2015? Can the USA collapse the economy of China?



It would be like the strongest guy in class trying to bully the third strongest guy in class… so they wouldn't fight. Doesn't make much sense, does it?

Let me get this out of the way first, if by some divine intervention comic book situation occurs that China would not fight back, then yes. China simply needs oil to function like every country that doesn't produce all of it's needs and Brazil.

But then let's get back to the real world, China is paranoid as f***, hence the South China sea situation that we have now. To block China you would need to effectively block South and East China seas, South between Vietnam, Philippines and Taiwan, and East from Taiwan north to South Korea and Japan.

This is what Chinese government figured out a long time ago and started the groundwork for the control over those stretches of open waters and islands within them.

Right now in the scenario where US would get the neighboring nation's to help or at least not side with China it could still block China by sea. The price would be very high but it's still achievable for the next ten years at most. After that Chinese A2AD (anti access/area denial), their navy and most importantly their experience of “boots on the ground” will be too great to achieve a certain win scenario.

That's not including hearts and minds strategy that China is starting to use around the world.

And even if US did block China by sea let's not forget that like every man is not a island neither is China. Now for sure that China and Russia are not best buddy's but hey the enemy of my enemy is my friend, right? And US has made enemy's of superpowers that it can't control. So Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and most importantly Russia would all be under pressure of great Chinese capital and weakening US influence in some of those states to start trading with China, in terms of oil Iran and Russia would love to help there especially.

And China has been buying oil at predetermined prices from the middle Eastern country's for years now, probably stockpiling somewhere because it imports more then it uses.

So to summarize, if the US managed to get this “blockade” thru UN somehow China would:

-Probably feel threatened and defend it's self.

-Buy it's oil over ground, not sea(since it's in such a nice neighborhood).

-Drag most of south-east Asia down with it in conflict.

-It will have enough oil to survive the crisis until land routs start bringing enough oil in.

So not much to gain, and a hell of a lot to lose.


Makes you wonder if the US is so predictable. Huawei already determined 7 years ago that US would take action against them so they planned a new OS. Same with blockade in Melaka Straits. Now China has a pipeline from Myanmar to Southern China. CPEC in Pakistan will also serve as another route. And so is Iran to China. The latest is revival in interest in a canal across the narrowest part of Malaya Peninsula (Kra). In addition the rail link built in Malaysia between West and East coast to be built by China also offers an alternative overland route to South China Sea.


No Body trusted the US before Trump. Now that the Deal maker and his country, America, who preaches Democracy & Freedom has finally proven to the world that you seriously have to regard the US as a toss pot .


You probably don't know that the oil supply pipeline had been connected between China and Russia. Iran, Pakistan and upper middle east countries are constructing roads and railway interlinking each other countries to set their trade routes. So there are no problems if the sea route being temporary shut off. After all the South China Sea is China territory but they're dispute on the 9 dotted area. Philippines and China has the intention in jointly developed oil and gas exploration in that disputed islands but Philippines has made a mistake by going to Hague court and resulted the disputed island being caveat, so no development is allowed until the dispute is settled by those that had made claims on it.


My friend - do not forget the Chinese food dilemma ..and China will need far more than rain & sunshine.


China never forget about food. Also why is US so so so into pushing countries into war? For what? Anyway it wont happen for many reasons. Even with an Iran, the US is hesitant for decades.


China does not have food problem—they are fully self-reliant in feeding its own population. The food imports is used to for animal feed. So when war starts Chinese will have to eat less meat, but not starve.

Also lots of farmers are now working in factories after China becomes the factory of the world. Lots of arable land lie fallow—it is not profitable to grow food when working in assembly line earns more. But when war starts, farmers will return to the fallow land and ramp up food production.


Now you understand why US keep promoting her agriculture products to China and China keep refusing to increase the food imports from US.

The last thing the Chinese would do is handing their control over food to others. So many wars fail or win by foods in Chinese history. Chinese government set a bottom line of agriculture lands more than 10 years ago, and the government didn't fold and change their mind regardless how much domestic objection to.


I thought this was about oil and how embargo won’t work, where did food come out from?


It was about oil, I think, originally? Then we just left it all behind and let it all hang out, I guess? Even if you get past oil, smoke started coming out of my ears on the immense surplus of food and super awesome government programs that took care of everyone. Did I miss a chapter on Mao when I was getting my doctorate?

I must have overslept that day… possibly hungover? Not sure. Then we took another turn into Iran, a left at Mongolia, and the Russians got involved because we had bad directions?! Somehow or another, Afghanistan got thrown into the mix, too. Afghanistan is a good country to have on your side if you need opium, though… can't control its own territory, so I'm unsure how they help elsewhere, but lots of opium. I could use a bit right now, my head started hurting trying to follow the non-academic back and forth. Can't we just take them out and measure them so we can be done with it? We even got into the old “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”… you know, the words uttered by the guy not too long before he was killed trying to make his enemy's enemy his friend! By the way, if that saying is true, hypothetically, does that mean I have to like Kanye West now?

Because from what I understand, I don't quite follow it, Taylor Swift is an enemy of men, or relationships, or bedroom secrets, or something, and from what I understand, Kanye West is her enemy because he made her cry while he was drunk or something? So, that'd make him my friend… but I don't want to be his friend. I'm no friend of “Yeezus” or whatever, cuz that's blasphemous, right?

Wait… where was I? Oh, yeah! OIL!!! You guys mentioned something about oil? Like, Puerto Rico was going to take over Venezuela because they already speak Spanish and will keep it from being sent to China via Pakistan, right? I'm pretty sure that's it! And… converse!





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